WTI's second outsized weekly gain (+9.22% over five days to 74.87) on the reinstated Iranian blockade is an acute supply-risk premium layered on a physical market that is not tightening on aggregate, since Kazakhstan's 8.4% H1 output drop is offset by Nigeria at a six-year high and OPEC's bullish 2027 demand upgrade drew no tape reaction; the structural-looser-balances read holds pending positioning confirmation.

Co by ją obaliło

If the next COT report (after 7 July) shows WTI managed money building outright fresh net longs rather than extending net shorts, and WTI clears its 20-day high of 84.88, the escalation is confirmed as a genuine repricing and the looser-balances read fails.

Deklarowane prawdopodobieństwo, że teza się utrzyma

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To jest własny, datowany rejestr zespołu, rozliczany o dane rynkowe. Opis tezy badawczej, nie porada inwestycyjna.