June CPI's decline to 3.5% year on year, with the core index falling outright to 336.07, is a genuine disinflation signal that survived a real Hormuz supply shock rather than a forecast tiebreaker, but the 2-year yield's 99.6th percentile reading and 40.5bp of priced tightening at 12 months show the front end has not yet repriced to reflect it.

Co by ją obaliło

If the 2-year yield eases meaningfully and priced tightening odds fall after the 15 July PPI print and Warsh's testimony, disinflation has won cleanly; if the yield holds near its current extreme while WTI's gain persists, energy-driven reflation remains the dominant priced force despite the CPI print.

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