Citi's forecast for Brent to fall to $60 to $65 by year end is corroborated rather than contested by current positioning, since managed money in both WTI and Brent is unwinding, not building conviction, confirming the desk's 2 July view that the glut narrative is winning by default.

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Managed money in WTI shifting from short-covering into building outright net longs, while the US crude inventory draw persists, would be the first evidence the tightness case is reasserting itself against Citi's bearish call; continued unwinding in both benchmarks' positioning confirms the glut narrative keeps setting the price.

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