Commodities
Energy, metals and agriculture: supply, demand and the balance of risk.
eflon · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Washington, not OPEC+, is now the marginal seller keeping crude's glut story intact
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983 even as WTI sits at 68.55 and managed money stays cautious, shifting the supply narrative from OPEC+'s output hike to federal drawdowns.
Libelul · CC BY 2.0 (edited)OPEC+ is adding barrels into a market that just priced out its own war premium
A 188,000 bpd OPEC+ output increase for August lands as WTI sits near its 20-session low of 68.58 and positioning in both crude benchmarks keeps unwinding rather than picking a side.
rais58 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Citi's $60 call lands on a market where positioning has already stopped fighting the glut
WTI is pinned near its 20-session low at 68.7 and Brent at 71.99 as Citi forecasts $60 to $65 Brent by year end, while managed money in both benchmarks keeps unwinding rather than betting either way.
James St. John · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Crude's stock draw to an eight-year low no longer moves the price, and that is the tell
WTI has fallen to a fresh 20-session low of 67.28 even as US inventories sit at their lowest since 2018, confirming the desk's 2 July view that the glut narrative, not the tightness case, is setting the price.
Horia Varlan · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The short-covering the desk flagged on 1 July has stalled, and the tape now agrees with the glut story
WTI has fallen to a fresh 20-session low as reports of progress toward ending the Iran conflict strip out the war premium, leaving the inventory-driven tightness case from 1 July without the price action to support it.
Orange County Archives · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Crude's inventory squeeze is real, but positioning says the market doesn't believe it lasts
US stockpiles have fallen to their lowest since September 2018 even as Brent posts its worst quarter since 2020, a split that leaves the physical market tighter than the futures curve is willing to price.