Poland
Warsaw-listed equities, the zloty and NBP policy, read with the same discipline as the global desks.
Jorge Lascar · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A weaker dollar, not just NBP cut bets, is now doing the work in Warsaw's rally
WIG20's 1.72% advance on 19 August 2026 coincided with USD/PLN touching a 20-day low of 3.694, complicating the desk's reading of WIG-BANKI as a pure rate-cut trade.
AGC Glass Europe · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw's banks price NBP cuts a hotter CPI path may not allow
WIG-BANKI rose 2.27% on 19 August 2026 even as Poland's inflation sits above the NBP's 3.5% upper tolerance band, a gap the July projection round is expected to widen rather than close.
Krzysztof Duda · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Two stocks, not the banking sector, explain Warsaw's worst session
WIG20 fell 1.44% on 13 August 2026 led by KGHM and Orlen, while WIG-BANKI slipped only 0.26%, a split that complicates the bank-index reading the desk has tracked since early August.
Krzysztof Duda · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks retreat before the NBP projection meant to justify the rally
Warsaw's bank index has slipped 0.91% over five sessions into 10 August even as the NBP's overdue July projection round, the test the desk flagged on 3 August, remains unpublished.
Arian Zwegers · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A nineteen-year high in WIG20 tells Warsaw's banks nothing new
WIG20's break above its 2007 high on 3 August 2026 was led by an index that carries no bank stock, while WIG-BANKI's own five-session gain still rests on an NBP projection round due only in the coming week.
oscarparadela.com · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw's banks shrug off a CPI rebound that argues against further NBP cuts
WIG-BANKI has risen 4.03% over five sessions even as GUS data show consumer prices rebounding 0.8% month on month in July on fuel costs, a divergence the desk's labour-market caution from 29 July has not yet resolved.
AGC Glass Europe · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Poland's labour gauge flashes a warning Warsaw bank stocks aren't pricing
Poland's Labour Market Index climbed to 77.7 in July, a signal of rising unemployment risk, landing a day before the CPI flash that Warsaw bank stocks are betting will still leave room for NBP cuts.
CIDSE - together for global justice · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks rally into a CPI print that could reopen the case for cuts
WIG-BANKI rose 1.39% on 27 July 2026 even as a nearly PLN 100 million write-down hit Alior, leaving Polish bank equity betting the 30 July CPI flash confirms room for the NBP to keep cutting.
Jorge Lascar · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Polish banks already paid 80% of last year's tax bill in six months
Polish banks paid roughly PLN 16 billion in CIT and bank tax through the first half of 2026, almost 80% of the whole of 2025's burden, and now face talk of another CIT increase just as WIG-BANKI posts its sharpest fall of the week.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Poland's jobless rate falls to 5.8%, but sentiment says workers don't believe it
June unemployment eased to 5.8% from 5.9%, yet Poles' own view of their workplaces dropped five points in July, a split that leaves the NBP's easing case resting on a backward-looking number.
Bernard Spragg · CC0 1.0A softer inflation print can't stop the zloty's slide to a 20-day low
EUR/PLN and USD/PLN are both at fresh 20-day highs the same day core inflation eased to 3.0%, and the driver looks like the dollar, not the domestic data.
y entonces · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Poland hits its inflation target just as pump prices erase the win
Poland's June inflation print landed at the 2.5% NBP target even as pump prices jump on Iran-driven crude, leaving WIG20 near the 3800 line as the one market showing any reaction at all.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)NBP's projection day tests whether Polish rate calls are splitting for real
The NBP presents its July Inflation Report at 13:00 UTC with ING calling policy rhetoric more dovish and Erste Bank pushing cuts to end-2027, yet EUR/PLN and WIG20 show barely a flicker.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)RPP silence, EU embargo friction leave Polish assets untested
The RPP closed its July meeting without a headline move as Brussels raised the prospect of an infringement case over Poland's Ukraine grain embargo, yet EUR/PLN and WIG20 show barely any reaction.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Polish bonds rally on oil, then give it back on Iran risk
A four-month low in Polish bond yields, driven by fading rate-hike fears, unwound within the same session as Middle East tensions pushed oil back up, while WIG20 slipped below the 3700 level the 7 July note flagged as the market's tell.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A widening current account gap gives the Council a reason to sound dovish, but the złoty isn't pricing it
Poland's exports fell 1.6% in May and the current account deficit widened to 0.9% of GDP ahead of the 8 July rate decision, yet EUR/PLN sits flat near 4.29 and WIG20 is pushing at 3700, a split the Council will have to address.