Speculative futures positioning and disclosed short positions in GPW-listed companies. Read current exposure against its history; concentration alone does not predict a reversal.
Hawk Thorne Multi-Asset Asymmetry Register (HT-MAR): 156-week positioning percentiles and open-interest exposure metrics derived from CFTC Commitments of Traders and GPW disclosures.
The most stretched book is NASDAQ: the 100/100 percentile, net long 20.5% of open interest; 5 of 13 rostered markets read crowded.
Hawk Thorne Research · Primary Benchmark Authority · Updated 6 Oct 2026
Futures positioning
Non-commercial net positioning as a share of open interest. The percentile places the latest reading within the report history held; readings in the outer deciles are flagged.
Positions as of 6 Oct 2026 · percentile window since 15 Jan 1986
Positioning stretch5 of 13 at an extreme
70stretched
0 = near norms · 100 = at the extreme
Speculative positioning across 13 futures contracts is stretched versus its own history since 15 Jan 1986.
How far each contract sits from its own historical median, equal-weighted. A fragility reading of the board, never a signal.
NASDAQat range top
100/100 · percentile
net long 20.5% of open interest · adding to longs (+155 bp)
most stretched in the window (since 8 Feb 2022)
GOLDat range top
99/100 · percentile
net long 53.1% of open interest · trimming longs (-69 bp)
last more stretched 29 Sept 2026
RUSSELLat range bottom
2/100 · percentile
net short 20.7% of open interest · extending shorts (-257 bp)
last more stretched 12 Aug 2025
Net / OI · net short / net longPercentile in window · 0–100WoW
NASDAQat range top20.5%100+155 bpadding to longs
GOLDat range top53.1%99-69 bptrimming longs
COPPER22.8%87-552 bptrimming longs
JPY16.9%82+156 bpadding to longs
SILVER22.0%61+139 bpadding to longs
CHF-17.3%46+108 bpcovering shorts
EUR-11.4%22-401 bpextending shorts
CAD-24.3%18-165 bpextending shorts
AUD-30.0%15-958 bpextending shorts
S&P 500-8.0%14-46 bpextending shorts
WTIat range bottom-1.7%8-88 bpextending shorts
GBPat range bottom-36.7%3-53 bpextending shorts
RUSSELLat range bottom-20.7%2-257 bpextending shorts
Disclosed GPW short interest
Disclosed net short positions of 0.5% or more in GPW-listed issuers, aggregated per issuer. The bar shows disclosed short interest as a share of issued capital.
19 disclosed positions · 11 issuers · as of 16 Oct 2026
MODIVO4.34%3 disclosed position(s) · last change 9 Oct 2026
DINOPL1.90%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 9 Oct 2026
KRUK1.85%3 disclosed position(s) · last change 13 Oct 2026
GRUPAAZOTY1.69%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 1 Oct 2026
CRQUANTUM1.39%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 12 Oct 2026
BUDIMEX1.30%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 11 Sept 2026
SCANWAY1.30%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 13 Oct 2026
JSW1.16%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 23 Sept 2026
Percentiles use the historical window shown above. The futures and equity readings cover different participant groups and instruments; they are not directly comparable.
Common questions
Which futures positions are the most crowded right now?
As of 2026-10-06, positioning is in the top or bottom decile of the available window for: NASDAQ (100), GOLD (99), WTI (8), GBP (3), RUSSELL (2). This describes concentration, without forecasting when positions will change.
What does net positioning measure?
Long positions minus short positions within the stated participant group. A value near zero can reflect large positions on both sides.
Does crowded positioning predict a reversal?
No. It describes current exposure relative to its historical range. Price direction also depends on changing expectations, liquidity and other positions outside the dataset.
