Which futures positions are the most crowded right now?

As of the 2026-06-30 COT report, positioning sits at an extreme (top or bottom decile of the available window) in: S&P 500 (96), SILVER (96), GOLD (92), AUD (8), EUR (8), GBP (4), CAD (0), JPY (0). A crowded reading is a fragility observation, not a recommendation.

What is the COT report?

The Commitments of Traders report, published weekly by the CFTC, discloses futures positions by trader category. The non-commercial category proxies speculative positioning.

Does a crowded position mean the market will reverse?

No. A crowded reading describes how one-sided positioning is against its own history; it says the story is well-subscribed, not when it ends. Hawk Thorne publishes it as context, never as advice.

Positioning — the COT Futures Read and the GPW Short Register

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Futures positioning — the COT read

Non-commercial net positioning as a share of open interest. The percentile places the latest reading within the report history held; readings in the outer deciles are flagged.

Latest report: 30 Jun 2026 · percentile window since 6 Jan 2026 · source: CFTC

At an extreme:S&P 500 · at range top · 96SILVER · at range top · 96GOLD · at range top · 92AUD · at range bottom · 8EUR · at range bottom · 8GBP · at range bottom · 4CAD · at range bottom · 0JPY · at range bottom · 0

Net / OI · net short / net longPercentile in window · 0–100WoW

S&P 500at range top-1.9%96-12 bp
SILVERat range top25.1%96+332 bp
GOLDat range top52.5%92+101 bp
COPPER25.5%64-117 bp
CHF-36.8%56+105 bp
WTI0.8%56-133 bp
RUSSELL-6.4%20+54 bp
NASDAQ-2.7%12+72 bp
AUDat range bottom-8.2%8-213 bp
EURat range bottom0.1%8-370 bp
GBPat range bottom-34.6%4+95 bp
CADat range bottom-43.5%0-71 bp
JPYat range bottom-35.3%0-145 bp

GPW short interest — the KNF register

Disclosed net short positions of 0.5% or more in GPW-listed issuers, aggregated per issuer. The bar shows disclosed short interest as a share of issued capital.

24 disclosed positions · 13 issuers · register as of 9 Jul 2026 · source: KNF

MODIVO4.44%4 disclosed position(s) · last change 26 Jun 2026
JSW3.42%3 disclosed position(s) · last change 8 Jul 2026
ALLEGRO2.42%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 29 Jun 2026
GRUPAAZOTY1.83%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 24 Jun 2026
ZABKA1.69%3 disclosed position(s) · last change 20 May 2026
BUDIMEX1.42%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 8 Jun 2026
CDPROJEKT1.09%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 7 Jul 2026
CRQUANTUM1.00%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 1 Jul 2026

The full register →

Percentiles are computed within the window stated above and firm up as history accrues. Futures data from the CFTC legacy futures-only series; short-register data from the public KNF register. Editorial presentation of public data; not investment advice. Download CSV