Macro & Policy
Central banks, inflation, growth and the policy path that sets the price of money.
Boston Public Library · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Auction supply, not the Fed, is what's keeping the 2-year yield this stretched
A $121.3bn weekly issuance wave and a Treasury cash rebuild are holding the 2-year yield near a 98th-percentile stretch even as futures price a firmer, not looser, policy path.
voteblp · Public DomainIran's war premium drains out of crude while the 2-year yield stays put
WTI crude has fallen 4.96% over five sessions even as the 2-year Treasury yield holds near a 99.6th percentile stretch, testing the desk's fiscal-supply framing from 24 July ahead of this week's Treasury auctions.
johrling · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A 25.72% crude rally on Iran risk finds no echo in Treasury yields
WTI crude is up 25.72% over the past month on Iran-linked supply fears, yet the 2-year Treasury yield's calm sits at odds with a fiscal backdrop the desk still reads as EXTREME.
ell brown · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A $125.9bn issuance wave hits the tape before the 10-year auction even clears
Treasury flooded the market with $125.9bn in net issuance this week while draining $87.2bn from its own account, and WTI crude's jump past $92 on a Houthis supply report adds pressure just as the 10-year auction result is still pending.
Midnight Believer · Public DomainDisinflation loses the vote to fiscal supply and a fresh WTI high
Eurozone HICP confirmed at 2.8% and softer US export prices are being outvoted by an EXTREME fiscal gravity read and WTI crude at a 20-day high above $80, keeping the front end priced for tighter policy.
joncutrer · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Soft PPI and a China growth miss outvote a US strike on Iran
US Centcom struck Iran on 15 July as core PPI came in soft and China's Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3%, yet the S&P 500 rose 0.24% and WTI fell 0.79%, pricing the escalation as bounded.
roy.luck · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A cooler CPI print outlasts a live Hormuz blockade, but bonds aren't cheering
June CPI fell to 3.5% year on year even as Hormuz shipping traffic dropped 60% and WTI crude holds an 11.93% five-day gain, but the 2-year yield's 99.6th percentile reading says the bond market has not bought the disinflation story yet.
Eridony (Instagram: eridony_prime) · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A 3.8% CPI forecast collides with a bond market already betting against it
US CPI's 3.8% y/y forecast lands into a live Hormuz disruption and a 2-year yield at a 5-month high, forcing the Fed's hand before Warsh even speaks.
jheffryswid™ d e s i g n · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Oil's Iran shock meets a labor slump ahead of the CPI print
WTI crude is up 4.85% so far on 13 July 2026 on a reinstated Iranian naval blockade just as Volkswagen, Amazon and a re-read June jobs report point to a softening labor market, setting up 14 July's CPI as the tiebreaker for the Fed's read.
trialsanderrors · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Crude's five-day bounce puts a hole in the CPI disinflation story
WTI crude is up 6.27% over five sessions to 72.85 into the 14 July US CPI, where the headline forecast is a fall to 3.8% year on year, leaving the disinflation trade with a firming energy tape underneath it.
Guwashi999 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Japan's PPI hits a 2026 high, but the tape isn't pricing it yet
Japan's producer prices rose 7.1% year on year in June 2026, the sharpest pace since 2023, yet the Dollar Index and Treasury yields show barely a flicker, leaving liquidity still the dominant story for risk assets.
Ian A Gratton · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A $134.2 billion Treasury drawdown is doing what soft housing data cannot
The S&P 500's 0.81% gain on 9 July 2026 lines up with a Treasury General Account drawdown of $134.2 billion, not with a housing market that just posted its weakest reading in months.
bettrichard873 · Public DomainGold's rebound puts the Fed's hawkish minutes read back in question
Gold rose 1.51% on 9 July 2026 as the Dollar Index slipped 0.13%, undoing the liquidity-driven split the desk flagged a day earlier and pointing rate expectations back toward a cut.
B7khSy · CC BY 3.0 (edited)Gold's slide tests the rate-cut story the desk has doubted since 3 July
Gold fell 2.0% so far on 8 July 2026 even as the Dollar Index barely moved, a split that undercuts the cut-pricing thesis hours before the FOMC minutes land.
7C0 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A soft-patch in growth data is building while the market keeps pricing only liquidity
ISM services new orders, the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index and a 4,800-job cut at Microsoft point to cooling US demand and labor conditions, yet the S&P 500 is up 2.49% over five days on fiscal liquidity alone; the FOMC minutes due 8 July 2026 decide which signal the market has to answer to.
Son of Groucho · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Gold's rally is no longer alone, but the bond market still won't sign off on it
Gold is up 1.23% so far on 6 July 2026 with the Dollar Index also firmer, broadening a rate-cut repricing that the 10-year yield and credit spreads have yet to confirm.
Nate Loper • #ArizonaGuide ️ · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Gold is pricing Fed cuts that the bond market has not yet agreed to
A 1.81% jump in gold on 3 July and a softening Dollar Index point to a rate-cut repricing that the 10-year yield, up 4 basis points into month-end, has not confirmed.
@mikepick · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The supply tsunami is here, but the bond market isn't punishing it, and that's the real signal
An $88.9 billion weekly issuance flood and a $95.5 billion Treasury drawdown are colliding with a neutral regime signal, yet the 10-year yield curve barely moved and credit spreads tightened, suggesting the market has not yet decided which force wins.
*rboed* · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The Fed cannot cut on a jobless rate that fell because workers gave up looking
June's unemployment rate slipped to 4.2% only after 700,000 people left the labor force, a participation-driven improvement that leaves the Fed's cut case resting on a headline number the underlying data does not support.
ctj71081 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The regime downgrade the desk was waiting for just landed, and it argues for less conviction, not more
The regime signal has slipped from AGGRESSIVE to NEUTRAL as a global run of soft services and labor data piles onto a $76.6 billion weekly issuance tsunami, but gold's muted reaction suggests the market isn't yet pricing a genuine turn.
dbking · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A 57,000 payroll miss just handed the supply-tsunami thesis its first real test, and it's failing on cue
The soft jobs print the desk needed to confirm its 2 July issuance call has landed, but the regime signal still reads risk-on and yields still rose the day before, leaving liquidity and the labor market pointed in opposite directions.
ikarusmedia · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The liquidity story just flipped, and risk assets haven't noticed yet
Net Treasury issuance has swung from a TGA drawdown to a supply tsunami, removing the plumbing tailwind the desk flagged on 1 July just as US and euro area factory data keep softening.
yeowatzup · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Liquidity is papering over a manufacturing slowdown that spans two continents
A Treasury drawdown is injecting cash into the system even as US and euro area factory surveys soften and euro area prices tick lower, leaving risk assets supported by plumbing rather than by the cycle.