Macro & Policy
Central banks, inflation, growth and the policy path that sets the price of money.
7C0 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A soft-patch in growth data is building while the market keeps pricing only liquidity
ISM services new orders, the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index and a 4,800-job cut at Microsoft point to cooling US demand and labor conditions, yet the S&P 500 is up 2.49% over five days on fiscal liquidity alone; the FOMC minutes due 8 July 2026 decide which signal the market has to answer to.
Son of Groucho · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Gold's rally is no longer alone, but the bond market still won't sign off on it
Gold is up 1.23% so far on 6 July 2026 with the Dollar Index also firmer, broadening a rate-cut repricing that the 10-year yield and credit spreads have yet to confirm.
Nate Loper • #ArizonaGuide ️ · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Gold is pricing Fed cuts that the bond market has not yet agreed to
A 1.81% jump in gold on 3 July and a softening Dollar Index point to a rate-cut repricing that the 10-year yield, up 4 basis points into month-end, has not confirmed.
@mikepick · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The supply tsunami is here, but the bond market isn't punishing it, and that's the real signal
An $88.9 billion weekly issuance flood and a $95.5 billion Treasury drawdown are colliding with a neutral regime signal, yet the 10-year yield curve barely moved and credit spreads tightened, suggesting the market has not yet decided which force wins.
*rboed* · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The Fed cannot cut on a jobless rate that fell because workers gave up looking
June's unemployment rate slipped to 4.2% only after 700,000 people left the labor force, a participation-driven improvement that leaves the Fed's cut case resting on a headline number the underlying data does not support.
ctj71081 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The regime downgrade the desk was waiting for just landed, and it argues for less conviction, not more
The regime signal has slipped from AGGRESSIVE to NEUTRAL as a global run of soft services and labor data piles onto a $76.6 billion weekly issuance tsunami, but gold's muted reaction suggests the market isn't yet pricing a genuine turn.
dbking · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A 57,000 payroll miss just handed the supply-tsunami thesis its first real test, and it's failing on cue
The soft jobs print the desk needed to confirm its 2 July issuance call has landed, but the regime signal still reads risk-on and yields still rose the day before, leaving liquidity and the labor market pointed in opposite directions.
ikarusmedia · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The liquidity story just flipped, and risk assets haven't noticed yet
Net Treasury issuance has swung from a TGA drawdown to a supply tsunami, removing the plumbing tailwind the desk flagged on 1 July just as US and euro area factory data keep softening.
yeowatzup · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Liquidity is papering over a manufacturing slowdown that spans two continents
A Treasury drawdown is injecting cash into the system even as US and euro area factory surveys soften and euro area prices tick lower, leaving risk assets supported by plumbing rather than by the cycle.