shankar s. · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A record-crowded euro short keeps growing as the Fed's path firms, not eases
Leveraged funds extended their euro short in the week to 11 August even as EUR/USD sits at a 20-day high, while Fed futures now price roughly 29bp of tightening over 12 months rather than cuts.
Boston Public Library · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Auction supply, not the Fed, is what's keeping the 2-year yield this stretched
A $121.3bn weekly issuance wave and a Treasury cash rebuild are holding the 2-year yield near a 98th-percentile stretch even as futures price a firmer, not looser, policy path.
voteblp · Public DomainIran's war premium drains out of crude while the 2-year yield stays put
WTI crude has fallen 4.96% over five sessions even as the 2-year Treasury yield holds near a 99.6th percentile stretch, testing the desk's fiscal-supply framing from 24 July ahead of this week's Treasury auctions.
johrling · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A 25.72% crude rally on Iran risk finds no echo in Treasury yields
WTI crude is up 25.72% over the past month on Iran-linked supply fears, yet the 2-year Treasury yield's calm sits at odds with a fiscal backdrop the desk still reads as EXTREME.
docoverachiever · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Nasdaq futures deepen a record short while the Composite stays well short of the test
Nasdaq Mini futures extended their net short in the week to 11 August even as the Nasdaq Composite trades near 26,396, well below the 27,800 level the desk set as its own trigger for calling this a forced-seller squeeze.
Dimitry B · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Nasdaq futures build a three-year-record short as the index sits near highs
Nasdaq Mini futures pushed their net short to a three-year extreme in the week to 4 August even as the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.71% over five sessions, reversing the short-covering the desk flagged on 1 August.
jsmatlak · Public DomainSmall-cap futures keep adding shorts while large caps unwind theirs
S&P 500 e-minis saw the sharpest short-covering of the three major index futures books in the week to 28 July, while Russell 2000 futures extended their net short, splitting large- and small-cap positioning even as both indexes trade well inside their 20-day ranges.
Terry Kearney · CC0 1.0Leveraged funds' euro short hits a three-year extreme as the dollar keeps sliding
Leveraged funds have pushed the euro short to its most stretched level in three years even as the Dollar Index slips to a 20-day low, leaving that crowd exposed to the currency it is betting against.
Alison Pope from UK · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Leveraged funds trim their 2-year Treasury short as the Fed path firms
A shrinking bearish bet at the front end and a firmer 12-month rate path priced into futures cannot both be right, and 7 August's payroll print is what decides which one gives.
ell brown · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A dollar slide, not BoE hawkishness, is doing the work in sterling's rally
GBP/USD climbs to 1.3442 even as Governor Bailey pushes back on rate-hike bets and traders cut September hike odds below 40%, leaving the pound's strength resting on dollar weakness rather than a hawkish Bank of England.
fribbleblib · CC BY 2.0 (edited)The gap between gold's price and its crowd just closed, in the bulls' favor
Managed money rebuilt its gold long by 9,470 contracts in the week to 11 August, resolving the positioning gap the desk flagged on 7 August, even as Wells Fargo trims its 2026 target range and Comex gold trades at a fresh 20-day high near $4,480.
jdnx · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A payrolls miss is driving gold higher, but the spec long is shrinking
Gold jumped 4.08% so far on 7 August 2026 to a fresh 20-day high after payrolls fell 23,000 against a forecast gain of 80,000, but managed money was trimming its net long into that move, not adding to it.
James St. John · Public DomainWTI's crude short has nowhere left to run; Brent's long still does
Brent crude fell below $82 a barrel for the first time since 13 July as Iran de-escalation talk resumed, but its managed-money long, built to 83% of its own 52-week range, has further to unwind than WTI's short, which has already covered.
AGC Glass Europe · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw's banks price NBP cuts a hotter CPI path may not allow
WIG-BANKI rose 2.27% on 19 August 2026 even as Poland's inflation sits above the NBP's 3.5% upper tolerance band, a gap the July projection round is expected to widen rather than close.
Krzysztof Duda · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Two stocks, not the banking sector, explain Warsaw's worst session
WIG20 fell 1.44% on 13 August 2026 led by KGHM and Orlen, while WIG-BANKI slipped only 0.26%, a split that complicates the bank-index reading the desk has tracked since early August.
Krzysztof Duda · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks retreat before the NBP projection meant to justify the rally
Warsaw's bank index has slipped 0.91% over five sessions into 10 August even as the NBP's overdue July projection round, the test the desk flagged on 3 August, remains unpublished.
The public register holds 97 dated theses, each with the condition that would prove it wrong. 44 have been settled in public, 18 of them against us. Nothing is edited after the fact.
Theses maturing this week: 1; the nearest verdict: Wednesday.
Published every trading day; when the signal is thin, the desk says so instead of publishing. The discipline record