Back to Front PageUpdated 21 August 2026
21 AugustFX & RatesA record-crowded euro short keeps growing as the Fed's path firms, not eases
Hawk Thorne Research20 AugustPolandA weaker dollar, not just NBP cut bets, is now doing the work in Warsaw's rally
Hawk Thorne Research20 AugustPolandWarsaw's banks price NBP cuts a hotter CPI path may not allow
Hawk Thorne Research19 AugustEquitiesNasdaq futures deepen a record short while the Composite stays well short of the test
Hawk Thorne Research18 AugustFX & RatesLeveraged funds' euro short hits a three-year extreme as the dollar keeps sliding
Hawk Thorne Research17 AugustCommoditiesThe gap between gold's price and its crowd just closed, in the bulls' favor
Hawk Thorne Research14 AugustPolandTwo stocks, not the banking sector, explain Warsaw's worst session
Hawk Thorne Research12 AugustPolandWarsaw banks retreat before the NBP projection meant to justify the rally
Hawk Thorne Research10 AugustEquitiesNasdaq futures build a three-year-record short as the index sits near highs
Hawk Thorne Research7 AugustCommoditiesA payrolls miss is driving gold higher, but the spec long is shrinking
Hawk Thorne Research6 AugustFX & RatesLeveraged funds trim their 2-year Treasury short as the Fed path firms
Hawk Thorne Research3 AugustCommoditiesWTI's crude short has nowhere left to run; Brent's long still does
Hawk Thorne Research3 AugustPolandA nineteen-year high in WIG20 tells Warsaw's banks nothing new
Hawk Thorne Research1 AugustEquitiesSmall-cap futures keep adding shorts while large caps unwind theirs
Hawk Thorne Research1 AugustPolandWarsaw's banks shrug off a CPI rebound that argues against further NBP cuts
Hawk Thorne Research30 JulyFX & RatesA dollar slide, not BoE hawkishness, is doing the work in sterling's rally
Hawk Thorne Research30 JulyMacro & PolicyAuction supply, not the Fed, is what's keeping the 2-year yield this stretched
Hawk Thorne Research29 JulyPolandPoland's labour gauge flashes a warning Warsaw bank stocks aren't pricing
Hawk Thorne Research28 JulyPolandWarsaw banks rally into a CPI print that could reopen the case for cuts
Hawk Thorne Research28 JulyMacro & PolicyIran's war premium drains out of crude while the 2-year yield stays put
Hawk Thorne Research27 JulyCommoditiesThe WTI mismatch view breaks on its own test, and Brent's longs keep building into the drop
Hawk Thorne Research24 JulyPolandPolish banks already paid 80% of last year's tax bill in six months
Hawk Thorne Research24 JulyMacro & PolicyA 25.72% crude rally on Iran risk finds no echo in Treasury yields
Hawk Thorne Research23 JulyPolandPoland's jobless rate falls to 5.8%, but sentiment says workers don't believe it
Hawk Thorne Research23 JulyMacro & PolicyA $125.9bn issuance wave hits the tape before the 10-year auction even clears
Hawk Thorne Research22 JulyCommoditiesWTI shorts pile in at a 93.6% percentile rank while crude keeps climbing
Hawk Thorne Research20 JulyCommoditiesOne cease-fire wire erases nine sessions of Iran war premium in crude
Hawk Thorne Research20 JulyFX & RatesOne Treasury book, two convictions: shorts cover up front, deepen at the long end
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyEquitiesFour earnings misses, four different reasons, and a S&P short that keeps building
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyCommoditiesA 12% crude run undoes the desk's own call that Iran risk had gone stale
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyFX & RatesFading Fed cut bets can't lift the dollar past a still-crowded euro short
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyMacro & PolicyDisinflation loses the vote to fiscal supply and a fresh WTI high
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyPolandA softer inflation print can't stop the zloty's slide to a 20-day low
Hawk Thorne Research16 JulyPolandPoland hits its inflation target just as pump prices erase the win
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyEquitiesA three-year-low short book covers into a manufacturing beat, leaving IBM and Apple exposed
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyCommoditiesCrude ignores direct US strikes on Iran, and the tape says why
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyMacro & PolicySoft PPI and a China growth miss outvote a US strike on Iran
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyEquitiesIBM's 25% collapse confirms the miss, but the tape still calls it a one-off
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyCommoditiesSilver's 3.41% jump outpaces oil, handing Iran's risk premium to metals
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA cooler CPI print outlasts a live Hormuz blockade, but bonds aren't cheering
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyFX & RatesDollar shorts unwind even as short-end yields hit a 17-month high
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyEquitiesIBM's 17% drop tests whether earnings misses are broadening past one stock
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyCommoditiesA 1983-low strategic reserve collides with a WTI short that keeps growing
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA 3.8% CPI forecast collides with a bond market already betting against it
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyCommoditiesWTI's second escalation gain runs into a supply picture that is still net looser
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyMacro & PolicyOil's Iran shock meets a labor slump ahead of the CPI print
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyEquitiesTSMC's record quarter tests whether AI demand is broadening, not narrowing
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyCommoditiesWTI's 4.76% jump on Iran strike tests the desk's glut thesis
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyFX & RatesYen shorts are covering into a BOJ independence scare, not a rate call
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyMacro & PolicyCrude's five-day bounce puts a hole in the CPI disinflation story
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyCommoditiesIEA's demand downgrade explains why oil shrugs off Iran war rhetoric
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyFX & RatesCanadian dollar shorts hit a record crowd just as jobs data beats
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyMacro & PolicyJapan's PPI hits a 2026 high, but the tape isn't pricing it yet
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyPolandNBP's projection day tests whether Polish rate calls are splitting for real
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyEquitiesS&P 500 nears a record close while Salesforce absorbs a lone AI demand doubt
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyMacro & PolicyA $134.2 billion Treasury drawdown is doing what soft housing data cannot
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyPolandRPP silence, EU embargo friction leave Polish assets untested
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyEquitiesS&P 500 shrugs off Iran rhetoric and an earnings miss cluster
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyCommoditiesSilver's outsized jump against gold points to a squeeze, not a safe-haven bid
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyFX & RatesCrowded dollar shorts leave EUR/USD and USD/JPY primed to snap back
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's rebound puts the Fed's hawkish minutes read back in question
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyCommoditiesWTI's slide to 72.49 shows the market fading Trump's war premium
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyEquitiesS&P 500 futures shrug off Trump's Iran ceasefire reversal
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyFX & RatesHawkish Fed minutes can't lift the Dollar Index off 100.90
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyEquitiesNvidia's $1 trillion cap loss tests the AI-reassertion case
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyCommoditiesTrump's Iran ceasefire remark jolts WTI, but positioning hasn't turned
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyFX & RatesA hawkish cluster is building, but the Dollar Index hasn't noticed
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyPolandPolish bonds rally on oil, then give it back on Iran risk
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyFX & RatesRBNZ delivers the hike it flagged, but the Aussie long is the one fraying
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's slide tests the rate-cut story the desk has doubted since 3 July
Hawk Thorne Research7 JulyFX & RatesJapan's strongest wage cycle since 1992 hasn't dented the crowded yen short
Hawk Thorne Research7 JulyPolandA widening current account gap gives the Council a reason to sound dovish, but the złoty isn't pricing it
Hawk Thorne Research7 JulyFX & RatesA rate hike in New Zealand is about to collide with a growth scare in Australia, and the antipodean bloc may finally split
Hawk Thorne Research7 JulyCommoditiesWashington, not OPEC+, is now the marginal seller keeping crude's glut story intact
Hawk Thorne Research6 JulyMacro & PolicyA soft-patch in growth data is building while the market keeps pricing only liquidity
Hawk Thorne Research6 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's rally is no longer alone, but the bond market still won't sign off on it
Hawk Thorne Research6 JulyEquitiesA 12-month hardware delay at NVIDIA lands the same day the demand bulls declare victory
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyEquitiesAI capex names are trying to reassert themselves over the consumer-caution trade, but the Nasdaq isn't buying it yet
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyGold is pricing Fed cuts that the bond market has not yet agreed to
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyCommoditiesOPEC+ is adding barrels into a market that just priced out its own war premium
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyFX & RatesThe euro short just grew again, and that is the answer to the desk's own test
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyThe supply tsunami is here, but the bond market isn't punishing it, and that's the real signal
Hawk Thorne Research4 JulyFX & RatesTokyo escalates from warning to targeting speculators, and the yen short still hasn't blinked
Hawk Thorne Research4 JulyMacro & PolicyThe Fed cannot cut on a jobless rate that fell because workers gave up looking
Hawk Thorne Research3 JulyCommoditiesCiti's $60 call lands on a market where positioning has already stopped fighting the glut
Hawk Thorne Research3 JulyMacro & PolicyThe regime downgrade the desk was waiting for just landed, and it argues for less conviction, not more
Hawk Thorne Research3 JulyEquitiesThe weak payrolls print the desk flagged as a falsifier has landed, and the S&P 500 shrugged it off entirely
Hawk Thorne Research3 JulyFX & RatesThe crowded euro short just met its falsifier, and the Treasury short-covering trade agrees with the squeeze
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyEquitiesAuto earnings are splitting into winners and losers, and the index still can't tell the difference
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyFX & RatesThe payroll miss the desk's falsifier demanded just landed, and the crowded euro short is now the trade to watch unwind
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyA 57,000 payroll miss just handed the supply-tsunami thesis its first real test, and it's failing on cue
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyCommoditiesCrude's stock draw to an eight-year low no longer moves the price, and that is the tell
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyFX & RatesTokyo's intervention warning finds the yen short crowded and unhedged into payrolls
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyEquitiesThe consumer-weakness thesis from 1 July just got a second earnings season's worth of confirmation, and Wall Street still isn't pricing it
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyThe liquidity story just flipped, and risk assets haven't noticed yet
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyFX & RatesThe euro short is now the most crowded trade on the board, and Friday's jobs data is the only thing that can unwind it
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyCommoditiesThe short-covering the desk flagged on 1 July has stalled, and the tape now agrees with the glut story
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyEquitiesConsumer demand is cooling faster than corporate cost cuts can offset it
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyFX & RatesEuro shorts build even as the front end of the Treasury curve stops betting on higher yields
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyMacro & PolicyLiquidity is papering over a manufacturing slowdown that spans two continents
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyCommoditiesCrude's inventory squeeze is real, but positioning says the market doesn't believe it lasts
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