Central Bank Monitor

“further hot readings on core inflation would probably drive a rebound in rate expectations and, potentially, renewed worries about stagflation…”

Conditional hawkish signal: hot inflation data would warrant rate-hike expectations.

“the central bank was at a crossroads and further hot readings on core inflation would indicate a rate rise was needed…”

Signals readiness to raise rates if core inflation remains elevated; forward-looking hawkish stance.

“could support another rate increase at the September 15–16 meeting if inflation fails to cool further…”

Cook indicates conditional support for another hike if disinflationary progress stalls.

“Fed running out of room for disinflation to return…”

Cook signals constraints on easing and persistence of inflation concerns, implying tightening pressure remains.

“pledged an unwavering commitment to bring inflation down…”

Fed chair reaffirms strong inflation-fighting commitment after holding rates steady; signals resolve despite no immediate hike.

“bond yields are materially higher, suggesting that was a good thing…”

Warsh welcomes higher yields; hints at acceptance of tighter financial conditions.

“3% Eurozone inflation remains too high.”

Characterizes current inflation as unacceptably elevated, implying need for continued restrictive policy.

“the pace of consumer price increases in the Eurozone is likely to hold "well above" the ECB's 2% target this year due to the Iran war.”

Projects persistent above-target inflation driven by geopolitical risk; implies sustained policy restraint warranted.

“interest rates will continue to rise at a steady pace in the coming months to combat inflation…”

Signals continued rate increases to address above-target inflation; hawkish bias.

“interest rates will continue to rise at a steady pace in the coming months to combat inflation that remains well above the bank's 2% target…”

Lagarde signals sustained rate increases to combat above-target inflation.

“if the Mideast conflict persists and we get second-round effects, we will likely need to raise rates.”

Signals readiness to tighten policy if geopolitical risks drive persistent inflation via secondary effects.

“If the Middle East conflict prolongs and secondary effects emerge, we may need to tighten monetary policy to address inflation.”

Bailey signals readiness to tighten if geopolitical shocks drive inflation persistence.

“recent growth that was also in excess of expectations, is a good reason for policy to be tightened…”

Indicates stronger growth supports case for higher interest rates

“Stronger UK growth reinforces the case for higher interest rates if inflation remains persistent…”

Suggests rate increases justified by growth and persistent inflation.

“earlier signaled an extended hold on interest rates…”

Signals a prolonged pause in rates rather than further hikes or cuts.

“flagged upside risks to inflation at his post-decision briefing, keeping the door open for action as early as September…”

Governor signals readiness for rate hike amid inflation risks; suggests tightening bias.

“flagged upside risks to inflation at his post-decision briefing, keeping the door open to a move as early as September…”

Governor signals inflation risks and readiness for early tightening; hawkish tilt.

“Opinions align with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish communication after the July meeting and indicates how support for faster rate hikes was spreading beyond two vocal hawks.”

Ueda's hawkish stance; support for faster hikes spreading across board; intervention and yen commentary strengthens hike expectations.

“There is a high risk that price developments will deviate upward from the Bank's baseline scenario.”

Board member cites elevated upside inflation risk and views core inflation at target, signalling hawkish stance.

“As for underlying CPI inflation, there is a risk that it will deviate upward to a level above the price stability target of 2 percent…”

Board member cites upside inflation risks; voted for rate hike to 1.25% citing need to respond to price pressures.

“The BOJ will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in response to developments in economic activity and prices…”

Board member reaffirms commitment to continued rate increases; signals hawkish bias toward tightening in response to macro conditions.

“the central bank might be prepared to ease monetary policy after the summer…”

Glapiński indicated readiness to ease after summer amid moderate inflation pace.

“He could propose a 25-basis-point interest rate cut after the summer.”

Signals openness to easing after summer; caveats about other council members' caution indicate dovish tilt conditional on data.

“real monetary policy continues to stimulate the economy…”

Remark characterizes current policy as stimulative despite nominal rate levels, suggesting accommodation remains.

“This is in my opinion the correct stance for monetary policy…”

Endorses the majority RPP view leaning toward rate cuts after the holidays or in H1 2027.

“the central bank was ready to intervene in the market if needed…”

Reiterates readiness for FX intervention as a policy tool, not a rate signal