The index-level picture looks straightforwardly constructive. WIG gained 1.37% on 9 October 2026 to 157901.42, up 2.32% over five sessions. MWIG40 led the broad advance with a 1.58% session gain and a 2.01% five-session rise to 10651.44. SWIG80 added a more modest 0.43% on the day. WIG20's 2.48% five-session climb to 4185.52 sits alongside all of that strength.#

WIG-BANKI is the one component that did not join the move. It fell 0.51% on 9 October 2026 to 26674.25, and is down 1.72% over the same five sessions in which the broader market rose. Banks sit on the reference rate, parked at 3.75% since the 5 March 2026 cut, and on the trajectory of inflation the Monetary Policy Council will read into its next decisions. A rally that bypasses the banks while the rest of the market runs is a rally that is not, for now, pricing a change in the rate path.#

That gap matters because the inflation data landing the same week cuts against the disinflation story. A UCE Research and WSB Merito University report on September retail prices for basic products describes a reversal: the pace of price deceleration in shops is turning up again, though the report is careful to frame this as the end of price wars and elevated fuel prices rather than a fresh inflation wave. The March NBP projection already expects CPI to run above the 3.5% upper bound of the 2.5% target band through the end of 2026, with a return to the 2.5% point target only in mid-2027. That projection predates the retail data now coming through.#

A broad equity rally that leaves the rate-sensitive banks behind is not evidence the market has stopped worrying about the inflation path; it is evidence the two readings of Poland's cycle, consumer prices turning up and equities pricing calm, have not yet been reconciled.#

The złoty adds a third signal that does not fit neatly with either story. USD/PLN is trading at 3.9204 so far on 12 October 2026, up 0.48% on the session and 0.77% over five sessions. EUR/USD, meanwhile, has fallen 0.15% intraday and 3.57% over the past month to 1.1196. EUR/PLN itself is nearly flat, down just 0.03% on 9 October 2026 at 4.3752. The dollar leg is doing essentially all of the złoty's recent work, not a reassessment of Polish risk. That keeps the FX move separate from the equity and inflation threads rather than confirming either.#

The test ahead has a date on it. Poland's final CPI print from GUS lands 15 October 2026, the first hard read against the UCE Research signal that retail price momentum is turning. If that print confirms acceleration against the March projection's already-elevated path, the gap between WIG20's five-session strength and WIG-BANKI's five-session decline becomes harder to explain as noise. The banks' underperformance would then look like the more informed read of the two.#