The March round of that projection is already stale by the NBP's own admission: it predates the June fuel-cap expiry and the Middle East supply shock, and the bank's own note flags that the July update is expected to show a materially higher CPI path through mid-2027. The March path already had inflation running above the 3.5% upper band through end-2026 before returning to the 2.5% point target only in mid-2027, with growth pencilled at 3.9% for 2026. If the July revision pushes that return date further out, Erste Bank's end-2027 call gains ground. If the Council leans on the dovish language ING is hearing, the cut case survives regardless of a higher headline number, because a central bank can look through a fuel-cap-driven spike if it reads it as transitory.
That is the load-bearing distinction this piece hangs on: whether the market is repricing the RATE PATH or merely repricing the INFLATION PATH. Those are not the same trade. A higher CPI trajectory with a Council that stays dovish on rhetoric produces a very different złoty and bond reaction than a higher CPI trajectory that forces the Council to abandon the dovish tone altogether.
So far the tape gives no verdict either way. EUR/PLN trades at 4.3307 intraday on 10 July 2026, up 0.64% on the day and up 1.9% over the past month, sitting at its 20-day high. USD/PLN is at 3.7855, also at a 20-day high, up 2.74% over the month. Those moves are real but they track the broader dollar and regional currency drift the desk has attributed to oil and global rates in prior notes, not a fresh domestic repricing tied to this specific analyst split. WIG20 closed 9 July 2026 at 3686.03, up 0.37% on the session, still below the 3700 line flagged as the market's tell on 8 July 2026. WIG-BANKI, the cleanest read on rate expectations through Polish equities, closed the same session at 24665.62, up 0.82%, a firmer move than the broader index but not one that reads as a directional rate call in either direction.
Two credible analyst houses now disagree openly on whether the NBP cuts again this year or holds until 2027, and Polish assets have not yet chosen a side.
The desk's own record makes the softest point in this case plain. On 9 July 2026 the note observed that EUR/PLN and WIG20 showed barely any reaction to the RPP's silent July hold and to Brussels' embargo warning, and on 8 July 2026 the note traced a bond rally that reversed the same session once oil moved, concluding Polish rates were trading as an oil proxy rather than a domestic signal. The split between ING and Erste Bank recorded on 10 July 2026 is a sharper, more specific catalyst than either of those: it is a direct disagreement about the policy path itself, not an ambiguous political or geopolitical signal. If this, too, passes through the złoty and WIG20 without a discernible reaction, the pattern stops looking like noise and starts looking like structure.
The test resolves quickly. The NBP's press conference following the 13:00 UTC projection release will show whether the Council's language matches the dovish tilt ING describes or the steadier hold Erste Bank expects, and the 15 July 2026 CPI final print lands five days later against whatever path the July projection now assumes. If EUR/PLN and WIG20 still show no discernible reaction once both land, the institutional-overhang thesis fails for a third straight time, and Polish assets are confirmed as an oil and global-rates trade with a domestic policy debate running in parallel but unpriced.
