This desk's 9 September note left the question open. The Council's language that day was unchanged and silent, neither confirming nor denying the cuts WIG-BANKI's rally was pricing from the 3.75% reference rate. The test set then was whether the Council's next projection round would keep the March round's mid-2027 return-to-target date, or push it later. That test has not arrived. No fresh projection round has landed since 9 September, only a CPI print. The reading stands for now, not because the cut case strengthened, but because nothing has yet forced the Council's hand either way.#

What the fresh data does is narrow the room for that cut case to keep working on autopilot. CPI at 3.4% sits inside the upper edge of the 2.5% ±1pp target band, and it is rising, not falling. The March projection already assumed CPI would run above the 3.5% upper band through end-2026 before returning to target only in mid-2027. A print at 3.4%, with food prices the main drag, is not proof the disinflation path is broken. But it removes any comfort that the data is already surprising to the low side of that assumed path. Bank research previews cited in this desk's prior notes flag the coming July projection round as likely to push the CPI path higher still.#

Then there's the fiscal signal out of Warsaw on 17 September. The Presidential Palace's plan to zero out the retail fuel sales tax through March 2027, alongside flexible excise-rate cuts, is a policy lever aimed squarely at consumer prices. If it passes, it works against the RPP's cut case on paper: it holds measured inflation down mechanically rather than through demand cooling, exactly the kind of one-off relief that complicates how the Council reads any future print. A central bank cutting into a fuel-tax holiday risks having to explain a rebound once that relief expires in 2027.#

WIG-BANKI's rally keeps pricing a policy path that the Council has neither confirmed with language nor yet contradicted with a formal projection revision, leaving the sector's five-session gain resting on a premise nobody in Warsaw has actually stated out loud.#

The asymmetry here is straightforward. Bank equity in Poland benefits doubly from lower funding costs and easing margin compression, so a further cut repricing extends the WIG-BANKI trade already up 1.29% over five sessions. But that bet is now leaning against a CPI print running hotter than the assumed path, and a fiscal intervention that muddies the read further. PKO BP trades at a P/E of 13.8 with a 5.1% dividend yield, Pekao at 11 with 7.3%. Both levels already discount a benign rate environment; neither multiple has much room to absorb a repricing without policy support behind it.#

The reckoning from 9 September stands unresolved. The reading is sustained if the Council's next projection round, expected in the coming weeks, keeps the mid-2027 return-to-target date from the March round intact. It is retired if that round instead pushes the CPI path higher or later than mid-2027, which would remove the premise for further cuts and leave WIG-BANKI's five-session gain exposed with no policy support behind it.#