The liquidity tailwind the desk cited on 1 July has reversed from a TGA drawdown into a net issuance supply tsunami, and the regime signal's risk-on read has not yet repriced for that shift.

Co by ją obaliło

If the regime signal downgrades from AGGRESSIVE or the fiscal gravity narrative eases back from HIGH as net issuance moderates, the supply-tsunami thesis fails; a weak Non-Farm Employment Change print against still-heavy issuance would instead confirm it.

Status

Testowana ponownie

Przeczytaj notę →

To jest własny, datowany rejestr zespołu, rozliczany o dane rynkowe. Opis tezy badawczej, nie porada inwestycyjna.