WTI's 4.76% jump on the confirmed US-Iran strike moved price sharply but has not yet moved the underlying positioning base, which as of the 7 July 2026 COT report was still extending net shorts rather than building fresh longs, so the structural-glut thesis from 10 July 2026 remains intact pending the next report.

Co by ją obaliło

If the next COT report shows WTI managed money shifting from extending net shorts into building outright fresh net longs, or WTI holds above its 20-day high of 84.88, the structural-glut-over-geopolitics read fails and the shock is confirmed as a regime change rather than noise.

Deklarowane prawdopodobieństwo, że teza się utrzyma

62% · 10d horyzontu

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To jest własny, datowany rejestr zespołu, rozliczany o dane rynkowe. Opis tezy badawczej, nie porada inwestycyjna.