The 8 July bond yield rally to four-month lows was an oil-driven, not a domestic disinflation, repricing, and it reversed within the same session once Middle East tensions pushed oil back up, meaning the RPP's actual inflation risk (flagged for a higher path in the coming July projection) has not eased even as WIG20 slipped below the 3700 line the desk was watching.

What would prove it wrong

If Polish bond yields hold their four-month low into the 15 July 2026 CPI final print and that print comes in soft against the NBP's own path, the domestic disinflation case survives; if yields instead track oil's next move rather than the CPI data, the rally is confirmed as an oil trade, not a Polish rates signal.

Status

Next tested

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.