Japan's 7.1% y/y June PPI print, alongside a hawkish BoJ GDP revision and a still-restrictive Fed credit report, signals the inflation-sticky, tightening regime is broadening beyond the US, but the Dollar Index and 10-year Treasury yield show no confirming move yet, so fiscal liquidity (a $95.0 billion 30-day TGA drawdown) remains the dominant driver of risk assets for now.

What would prove it wrong

If Japanese and US inflation-linked yields fail to rise and the yen fails to strengthen on this PPI print over the coming week, the broadening-tightening read fails and liquidity alone remains the dominant driver.

Stated probability the thesis holds

58% · 7d horizon

Status

Next tested

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.