June CPI at 2.5% confirms genuine disinflation against the NBP's own target, but a fresh Iran-driven fuel spike is already undercutting the July print, and only WIG20/WIG-BANKI (not EUR/PLN or the reference rate) show any sign of pricing that tension so far.

What would prove it wrong

If EUR/PLN and WIG20 show no distinct reaction once the 20-21 July GUS employment, wages, industrial production and retail sales data land against this softer CPI base, the oil-and-global-rates trading pattern is confirmed yet again and the domestic data channel remains dormant.

Stated probability the thesis holds

60% · 5d horizon

Status

Standing

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.