WTI's 4.76% jump on 13 July 2026 following US strikes on Iran is a genuine geopolitical shock, but with gold down 0.79% the same day and equities not yet tested against the headline, fiscal liquidity (an $85.8 billion 30-day TGA drawdown) still looks like the dominant driver of risk assets pending the 14 July CPI print.

What would prove it wrong

If WTI gives back this move within the next one to two sessions and the S&P 500 or gold show no corresponding risk-premium reaction, the liquidity-dominance read survives and the Iran strike is confirmed as transient noise.

Stated probability the thesis holds

60% · 5d horizon

Status

Next tested

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.