Fading Fed cut expectations, an EXTREME fiscal gravity read (heavy net issuance against a TGA drawdown) and WTI crude at a fresh 20-day high above $80 are outvoting genuine eurozone and US disinflation data, so the rates path is being set by supply and energy, not the inflation trend.

What would prove it wrong

If the 2-year Treasury yield falls in the sessions following 17 July 2026 despite the EXTREME fiscal gravity read and WTI's fresh high, the supply-and-energy-dominant framing fails.

Stated probability the thesis holds

62% · 10d horizon

Status

Standing

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.