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Macro & Policy · 17 July 2026
Fading Fed cut expectations, an EXTREME fiscal gravity read (heavy net issuance against a TGA…
Fading Fed cut expectations, an EXTREME fiscal gravity read (heavy net issuance against a TGA drawdown) and WTI crude at a fresh 20-day high above $80 are outvoting genuine eurozone and US disinflation data, so the rates path is being set by supply and energy, not the inflation trend.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the 2-year Treasury yield falls in the sessions following 17 July 2026 despite the EXTREME fiscal gravity read and WTI's fresh high, the supply-and-energy-dominant framing fails.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 62% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Held · 1 August 2026 · settled against the tape
- How it settled
- no CL=F trade below 73 through 2026-08-01
This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.