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Equities · 13 July 2026
TSMC's record Q2 revenue growth of 36% and its new advanced packaging capacity in Chiayi are…
TSMC's record Q2 revenue growth of 36% and its new advanced packaging capacity in Chiayi are evidence that AI capital spending is broadening across the chip supply chain, countering the 10 July isolated-weakness read from the Salesforce downgrade, though the read-through to other AI-linked names remains unconfirmed pending Nvidia's 16 July earnings.
- What would prove it wrong
- If Nvidia and other AI-chip-linked names fail to rally on TSMC's beat into its 16 July earnings date, or TSMC's own guidance disappoints, the broadening-demand thesis fails and the isolated-weakness read from 10 July is vindicated instead.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 60% · 5d horizon
- Status
- Broke · 17 July 2026 · settled against the tape
- How it settled
- ^IXIC traded below 25297.6 on 2026-07-17 (session low 25250.6)
This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.