Poland's widening current account deficit and softer exports argue for a more cautious RPP tone on 8 July, but the złoty's flat price action and WIG20's push toward 3700 on record bond demand suggest the market is not pricing that dovish tilt, a gap the Council's statement should resolve.

What would prove it wrong

If the RPP holds rates unchanged on 8 July and frames its statement around inflation risk rather than the export and current account weakness, or if WIG20 fails to hold above 3700 through the decision, the dovish-tilt thesis fails.

Status

Next tested

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.