Gold's 1.51% rise and the Dollar Index's 0.13% fall on 9 July 2026 reverse the liquidity-driven decoupling flagged on 8 July, suggesting the FOMC minutes' hawkish tilt did not survive the next session and rate expectations, not fiscal liquidity alone, are again driving gold and the dollar in opposite directions.

What would prove it wrong

If gold and the Dollar Index diverge again in the coming sessions, gold rising while the dollar also firms, the rate-expectations reunification view fails and fiscal liquidity resumes as the dominant independent driver of gold's moves.

Status

Next tested

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.