The liquidity tailwind the desk cited on 1 July has reversed from a TGA drawdown into a net issuance supply tsunami, and the regime signal's risk-on read has not yet repriced for that shift.

What would prove it wrong

If the regime signal downgrades from AGGRESSIVE or the fiscal gravity narrative eases back from HIGH as net issuance moderates, the supply-tsunami thesis fails; a weak Non-Farm Employment Change print against still-heavy issuance would instead confirm it.

Status

Next tested

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.