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FX & Rates · 10 September 2026
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer policy path (52bp higher over 12 months) even as leveraged…
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer policy path (52bp higher over 12 months) even as leveraged funds keep covering a once-record Euro FX short, and the two signals cannot both be right about where dollar strength is headed.
- What would prove it wrong
- The Euro FX net short deepens in the next Commitments of Traders report while EUR/USD trades at or below 1.1535, reversing the covering wave and showing the priced tightening path is dominating the currency.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 42% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Broke · 17 September 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- EURUSD=X closed below 1.1535 on 2026-09-17 (close 1.14699)
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.