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Macro & Policy · 23 September 2026
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer, higher policy path (71.5bp higher over 12 months, not cuts)…
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer, higher policy path (71.5bp higher over 12 months, not cuts) running ahead of the FOMC's own 2.9% mean projection, driving a historically fast repricing at the front end of the Treasury curve even as the broader regime read stays balanced.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the 2-year Treasury yield retreats to 4.50% or lower by 27 September 2026, the fast repricing this note is built on will have proven supply-driven and reversible rather than a sustained repricing of rate expectations.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 60% · 5d horizon
- Status
- Broke · 24 September 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- DGS2 closed above 4.5 on 2026-09-24 (close 4.87)
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.