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Macro & Policy · 29 September 2026
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer 12-month policy path (80bp higher, not cuts) well above the…
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer 12-month policy path (80bp higher, not cuts) well above the FOMC's own 2.8% committee mean, even as August job openings fell to 7.079 million and consumer confidence hit a 12-year low, leaving the front end of the Treasury curve exposed if the labor deterioration continues into the 2 October payrolls report.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.50% within the next 15 trading days, the priced tightening path this note describes will have reversed rather than persisted.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 55% · 15d horizon
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.