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FX & Rates · 23 October 2026
The 91st-percentile leveraged short in the 2-year Treasury remains a bet on the Fed's priced path…
The 91st-percentile leveraged short in the 2-year Treasury remains a bet on the Fed's priced path, which still shows 62.5 basis points of tightening over 12 months as of 23 October, even as the 10-year yield's break below 5% on 22 October moved the cash curve independently of that priced path.
- What would prove it wrong
- The 2-year Treasury yield falls below 4.60% before the next Commitments of Traders report on 27 October 2026.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 42% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Latest publication in category
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.