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Equities · 12 November 2026
Nasdaq Mini futures speculators have grown an already near-record net long (96.8th percentile of…
Nasdaq Mini futures speculators have grown an already near-record net long (96.8th percentile of its three-year range) even as the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.15 per cent over the past month, and that stretched position, not a Nvidia leadership headline, is the exposed side of this setup.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the Nasdaq Mini futures net long shrinks in the COT report covering the week to 10 November 2026, the crowd is responding to weakness; if the net long keeps growing while the Composite falls further, the position remains exposed without yet having broken.
- Review condition
- the CFTC Commitments of Traders report covering the week to 10 November 2026: a decline in the Nasdaq Mini futures net long from 10,417 contracts would mark the crowd trimming into weakness; a further rise would show the position still being added to
- Status
- Retired · 13 November 2026
- How it settled
- Withdrawn after correction: the source windows precede the event and do not establish investor motives, hedge status or forced selling.
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.