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Commodities · 13 November 2026
On 12 November WTI crude rose while gold and silver fell over the same US cash session, driven by a…
On 12 November WTI crude rose while gold and silver fell over the same US cash session, driven by a hot-inflation hit to metals through the real-yield channel alongside separate supply-side drivers for crude.
- What would prove it wrong
- A 13 November Core PPI print that accelerates from the 0.7% prior, combined with a next Commitments of Traders report showing both gold and WTI crude moving the same direction on the rate signal and price path, would indicate one shared driver rather than decoupling.
- Review condition
- The 13 November Core PPI m/m print (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.7%): a firm reading that pushes gold and silver lower while WTI crude holds or rises would support the decoupling; both metals and crude moving together on the rate signal would undercut it.
- Status
- Latest publication in category
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.