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Poland · 30 October 2026
Poland's October flash CPI at 3.5% sits at the NBP's upper tolerance band; the muted EUR/PLN and…
Poland's October flash CPI at 3.5% sits at the NBP's upper tolerance band; the muted EUR/PLN and rallying WIG-BANKI suggest the market is not pricing this as grounds for a faster cutting path at the 4 November RPP decision.
- What would prove it wrong
- The NBP's post-meeting statement on 4 November treats the October print as evidence of a turning disinflation trend rather than attributing the fall to temporary base effects from the fuel-price cap.
- Review condition
- the NBP rate decision on 4 November 2026: a hold with language attributing the CPI fall to the fuel-cap base effect sustains this reading; a cut, or language framing the October print as evidence of a faster return to target, would count against it
- Status
- Revised · 30 October 2026
- How it settled
- The 30 October morning note treated WIG-BANKI's 29 October rally (1.96% session, 3.92% over five sessions) as corroborating its no-faster-cuts reading; on reflection that equity move would compress net interest margins if rates fell, so it does not support the no-faster-cuts case.
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.