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FX & Rates · 10 November 2026
The record leveraged-fund short in Euro FX futures (net short 104,030 contracts, the most stretched…
The record leveraged-fund short in Euro FX futures (net short 104,030 contracts, the most stretched reading since the series began) is losing the dollar-index confirmation it relied on, now that EUR/USD's 20-session correlation with the US Dollar Index has flipped positive from a negative 0.5 base over the prior 60 sessions.
- What would prove it wrong
- The 20-session correlation between EUR/USD and the US Dollar Index reverts back below zero before the next Commitments of Traders report.
- Review condition
- the Commitments of Traders report covering the week to 10 November 2026, released 14 November 2026: a euro net short that stays within a few thousand contracts of 104,030 while the correlation stays positive sustains this reading; a sharp reduction in the net short alongside a reversion of the correlation toward negative 0.5 would retire it
- Status
- Latest publication in category
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.