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Commodities · 8 September 2026
WTI's managed-money short has covered to near zero (725 contracts), leaving little further…
WTI's managed-money short has covered to near zero (725 contracts), leaving little further short-covering fuel for its rally, while Brent's net long, though trimmed this week, still sits far from exhausted at a 52-week COT index of 3.0, giving Brent more room to extend on a persisting Saudi supply risk premium than WTI has left to give back.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the next COT report shows WTI's managed-money net short rebuilding into a net long while Brent's net long is trimmed further toward or through a net short, the asymmetry described here is falsified.
- Review condition
- the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week to 15 September 2026: WTI managed-money positioning that rebuilds from covered short back toward net short would count against this reading
- Status
- Revised · 17 September 2026
- How it settled
- The 8 September 2026 note expected Brent's net long, at a 52-week COT index of 3.0, to extend on a persisting Saudi supply premium; instead Brent fell 3.71% over five sessions as wire reports describe Saudi Arabia rerouting crude through Oman, moving against that premise even though the COT report itself has not yet shown the net long trimmed.
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.