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Poland · 8 October 2026
The złoty weakens against both euro and dollar on 8 October 2026 owing to broad dollar strength…
The złoty weakens against both euro and dollar on 8 October 2026 owing to broad dollar strength, while WIG-BANKI's underperformance reflects bank-specific disclosures: a BlackRock stake reduction at Pekao on 8 October and FX-mortgage reserve estimates at Millennium on 7 October.
- What would prove it wrong
- This reading is retired if WIG-BANKI's underperformance against WIG20 reverses when Bank Millennium reports its final third-quarter FX-mortgage reserve figure, or if EUR/PLN rises by more than 0.5% in a session where EUR/USD is flat or higher, showing the złoty weakening independent of the dollar.
- Review condition
- Bank Millennium's formal third-quarter results disclosure with the final FX-mortgage reserve estimate, expected to confirm or revise the preliminary estimate flagged on 7 October 2026
- Status
- Revised · 9 October 2026
- How it settled
- EUR/USD fell -0.24% (5d) and -3.53% (1mo), indicating dollar strength against the euro, while EUR/PLN rose 0.09%/1.5% over the same windows — meaning the zloty's EUR leg weakened even as the dollar was strong against the euro, contradicting the 'broad dollar strength weakens zloty against both' premise and instead pointing to independent zloty weakness against the euro.
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.