Polish bank equity faces a two-sided squeeze: a CIT and bank-tax burden already running at roughly 80% of 2025's full-year total after just six months, with talk of a further increase, converging with an NBP reference rate at 3.75% since 5 March 2026 that is compressing net interest margins from the other direction.

What would prove it wrong

If the discussed CIT increase fails to advance to a formal legislative draft in the coming weeks, or if the 30 July 2026 CPI flash print comes in meaningfully above the NBP's March projection path (already assuming inflation above the 3.5% upper band through end-2026) and forces a pause in further rate cuts, the margin side of the squeeze eases and the fiscal threat alone would need to prove out on its own to justify continued underperformance in WIG-BANKI.

Stated probability the thesis holds

58% · 10d horizon

Status

Standing

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.