Poland's June unemployment fall to 5.8% supports the NBP's easing case on paper, but a five-point drop in workplace sentiment (CBOS, July) and an inflation path the NBP's own March projection already expects to be revised higher after the fuel-cap expiry mean the labour data alone should not be read as a green light for further cuts.

What would prove it wrong

If Poland CPI flash estimate (GUS) on 30 July comes in meaningfully above the NBP's March projection path (which already assumed CPI above the 3.5% upper band through end-2026), the softer unemployment print loses its weight in the easing debate; if it lands close to that path despite the fuel-cap expiry, the labour data's case for cutting is confirmed.

Stated probability the thesis holds

60% · 10d horizon

Status

Standing

Read the note →

This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.