Hawk ThorneRisk & Market Intelligence
Back to the register
What would prove it wrong
If the next COT report shows the Russell E-Mini net short resuming its extension while the Russell 2000 stays below its 20-day high of 3068.42, this week's covering reads as a pause inside a still-crowded short rather than a genuine unwind.
Stated probability the thesis holds
45% · 10d horizon
Status
Desk's current note

Read the note

This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.

Russell 2000 futures' record-crowded speculative net short shrank by… · 3 September 2026 · The Narrative Ledger