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Macro & Policy · 14 July 2026
June CPI's decline to 3.5% year on year, with the core index falling outright to 336.07, is a…
June CPI's decline to 3.5% year on year, with the core index falling outright to 336.07, is a genuine disinflation signal that survived a real Hormuz supply shock rather than a forecast tiebreaker, but the 2-year yield's 99.6th percentile reading and 40.5bp of priced tightening at 12 months show the front end has not yet repriced to reflect it.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the 2-year yield eases meaningfully and priced tightening odds fall after the 15 July PPI print and Warsh's testimony, disinflation has won cleanly; if the yield holds near its current extreme while WTI's gain persists, energy-driven reflation remains the dominant priced force despite the CPI print.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 60% · 5d horizon
- Status
- Expired · 22 July 2026
- How it settled
- horizon elapsed without a machine-checkable falsifier
This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.