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What would prove it wrong
If the Nasdaq Mini net short remains at or above the 85th percentile of its three-year range in the next COT report while the Nasdaq Composite closes above 28,200, the forced-seller squeeze thesis fires; if the short keeps covering toward below the 80th percentile, the read holds.
Stated probability the thesis holds
58% · 15d horizon
Status
Later publication

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A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.

The Nasdaq Mini futures net short covered for a second straight… · 22 September 2026 · Thesis ledger