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Poland · 21 September 2026
The record 2.66pp spread between the 10-year POLGB yield and 6-month WIBOR on 20 September signals…
The record 2.66pp spread between the 10-year POLGB yield and 6-month WIBOR on 20 September signals the bond market sees less room for further NBP cuts than WIG-BANKI's flat-but-still-elevated pricing assumes.
- What would prove it wrong
- This reading is sustained if the NBP's next projection round keeps or extends the mid-2027 return-to-target timeline from the March round; it is retired if that round instead pulls the CPI path back toward target sooner, restoring room for the cuts WIG-BANKI is pricing.
- Review condition
- the NBP's next quarterly projection round (expected to revise the March 2026 CPI path): a return-to-target date held at or pushed beyond mid-2027 sustains this reading; a date pulled forward toward 2.5% sooner than mid-2027 would unwind it
- Status
- Revised · 23 September 2026
- How it settled
- The referee is correct: the stated falsifier requires the NBP's next projection round to confirm or extend the mid-2027 timeline, but the data pack still only contains the March 2026 round, so no new projection has occurred to test this; the reading cannot be graded 'sustained' on unchanged WIG-BANKI pricing and an unretested spread alone, since that is not the confirming event specified.
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.