The Treasury curve is pricing two separate stories at once: the front end (2Y, 5Y, SOFR) is covering shorts on softening Canadian and US data, while the 10-year short extends to its most stretched since January on a fiscal-supply narrative the long end has not let go of.

What would prove it wrong

If the next COT report shows the 10-year note's short beginning to cover alongside the front end rather than extending further, the curve-split reading fails and a single delayed repricing becomes the more likely explanation.

Stated probability the thesis holds

60% · 10d horizon

Status

Standing

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This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.