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FX & Rates · 18 September 2026
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by 33,281 contracts in the week to 8…
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by 33,281 contracts in the week to 8 September 2026 even as the 2-year yield sits at the 100th percentile of its trailing year, a position now at the 97.4th percentile of its own three-year range that a soft 22 September US Note 2-Year auction or a stall in the priced Fed tightening path could unwind sharply.
- What would prove it wrong
- The 2-year Treasury yield trades at or below 4.60% in the days following the 22 September 2026 auction, showing the crowded leveraged-fund short is over-extended against a policy path not firming as fast as fed funds futures currently price.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 45% · 8d horizon
- Status
- Held · 30 September 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- no DGS2 close below 4.6 through 2026-09-30
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.