Back to Front Page3 AugustCommoditiesWTI's crude short has nowhere left to run; Brent's long still does
Hawk Thorne Research28 JulyMacro & PolicyIran's war premium drains out of crude while the 2-year yield stays put
Hawk Thorne Research27 JulyCommoditiesThe WTI mismatch view breaks on its own test, and Brent's longs keep building into the drop
Hawk Thorne Research24 JulyMacro & PolicyA 25.72% crude rally on Iran risk finds no echo in Treasury yields
Hawk Thorne Research23 JulyMacro & PolicyA $125.9bn issuance wave hits the tape before the 10-year auction even clears
Hawk Thorne Research22 JulyCommoditiesWTI shorts pile in at a 93.6% percentile rank while crude keeps climbing
Hawk Thorne Research20 JulyCommoditiesOne cease-fire wire erases nine sessions of Iran war premium in crude
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyCommoditiesA 12% crude run undoes the desk's own call that Iran risk had gone stale
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyMacro & PolicyDisinflation loses the vote to fiscal supply and a fresh WTI high
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyCommoditiesCrude ignores direct US strikes on Iran, and the tape says why
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyMacro & PolicySoft PPI and a China growth miss outvote a US strike on Iran
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyCommoditiesSilver's 3.41% jump outpaces oil, handing Iran's risk premium to metals
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA cooler CPI print outlasts a live Hormuz blockade, but bonds aren't cheering
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyCommoditiesA 1983-low strategic reserve collides with a WTI short that keeps growing
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA 3.8% CPI forecast collides with a bond market already betting against it
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyCommoditiesWTI's second escalation gain runs into a supply picture that is still net looser
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyMacro & PolicyOil's Iran shock meets a labor slump ahead of the CPI print
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyCommoditiesWTI's 4.76% jump on Iran strike tests the desk's glut thesis
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyMacro & PolicyCrude's five-day bounce puts a hole in the CPI disinflation story
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyCommoditiesIEA's demand downgrade explains why oil shrugs off Iran war rhetoric
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyCommoditiesWTI's slide to 72.49 shows the market fading Trump's war premium
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyCommoditiesTrump's Iran ceasefire remark jolts WTI, but positioning hasn't turned
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's slide tests the rate-cut story the desk has doubted since 3 July
Hawk Thorne Research7 JulyCommoditiesWashington, not OPEC+, is now the marginal seller keeping crude's glut story intact
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyCommoditiesOPEC+ is adding barrels into a market that just priced out its own war premium
Hawk Thorne Research3 JulyCommoditiesCiti's $60 call lands on a market where positioning has already stopped fighting the glut
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyCommoditiesCrude's stock draw to an eight-year low no longer moves the price, and that is the tell
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyCommoditiesThe short-covering the desk flagged on 1 July has stalled, and the tape now agrees with the glut story
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyCommoditiesCrude's inventory squeeze is real, but positioning says the market doesn't believe it lasts
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