Thesis ledger
Dated forecasts and market interpretations with assessment criteria and subsequent outcomes. This records research, not portfolio performance.
Publication range: 2 Jul 2026 – 15 Oct 2026. Source: Hawk Thorne research record. Thesis descriptions retain the content recorded in the ledger.
Forecasts
23Claims about future events, assessed against a stated condition and time horizon.
- Held
- 8
- Broke
- 8
- Unresolved
- 0
- Awaiting assessment
- 7
Interpretations
117Assessments of current conditions. New evidence can sustain, revise or retire an interpretation. These do not contribute to forecast accuracy.
- Sustained
- 7
- Revised
- 19
- Retired
- 10
- Awaiting assessment
- 52
- Historical assessments
- 29
Assessment rules and forecast calibration
Since 27 July 2026, forecasts and interpretations follow separate assessment rules. Earlier interpretations graded against price thresholds remain in the history and are excluded from calibration.
Declared probabilities compared with assessed outcomes. Brier is the mean squared error; a lower score indicates less error within this sample. A small sample does not establish future forecasting accuracy.
Forecast calibration
scored forecasts: 17 · Brier: 0.252
The sample includes only resolved forecasts with a recorded probability. Interpretations and unresolved entries are excluded.
Leveraged funds have rebuilt the 2-year Treasury short to 98.1th-percentile stretch while the priced Fed path firms at 67 basis points over 12 months and the UST 2Y NOTE yield sits at 4.79%.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.60% before the next Commitments of Traders report.
Fed funds futures price a firmer, no-cuts path (81.3bp higher over 12 months) that is running ahead of both the falling 2-year Treasury yield and the softer September payrolls data, leaving the stretched leveraged-fund 2-year short more exposed to a reversal than the priced path implies.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The US 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.60% on 8 October 2026 or earlier, showing the cash curve and the leveraged short are outrunning the priced tightening path rather than confirming it.
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by a further 16,524 contracts in the week to 15 September 2026 to 1,321,644 contracts, growing into a yield at the 100th percentile of its trailing year and a Fed funds futures path pricing 70bp of additional tightening, a position the desk's 18 September falsifier has not yet broken but which the 22 September auction will test directly.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The 2-year Treasury yield trades at or below 4.60% in the sessions following the 22 September 2026 auction, showing the leveraged short has outgrown the policy path it is betting against.
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by 33,281 contracts in the week to 8 September 2026 even as the 2-year yield sits at the 100th percentile of its trailing year, a position now at the 97.4th percentile of its own three-year range that a soft 22 September US Note 2-Year auction or a stall in the priced Fed tightening path could unwind sharply.
What would prove it wrong
The 2-year Treasury yield trades at or below 4.60% in the days following the 22 September 2026 auction, showing the crowded leveraged-fund short is over-extended against a policy path not firming as fast as fed funds futures currently price.
Read analysis#How it settled
no DGS2 close below 4.6 through 2026-09-30
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer policy path (52bp higher over 12 months) even as leveraged funds keep covering a once-record Euro FX short, and the two signals cannot both be right about where dollar strength is headed.
What would prove it wrong
The Euro FX net short deepens in the next Commitments of Traders report while EUR/USD trades at or below 1.1535, reversing the covering wave and showing the priced tightening path is dominating the currency.
Read analysis#How it settled
EURUSD=X closed below 1.1535 on 2026-09-17 (close 1.14699)
Leveraged funds covered 20,724 contracts of their Euro FX net short in the week to 25 August 2026 while EUR/USD fell to 1.16, breaking the 21 August squeeze thesis that required the short to shrink only while the currency held its 20-day high.
What would prove it wrong
EUR/USD trades at or above 1.1681 in the next CFTC Commitments of Traders week while the Euro FX net short deepens, which would show the 25 August covering was a mechanical unwind that reversed rather than the start of the crowd's exit from a losing position.
Read analysis#How it settled
EURUSD=X closed below 1.1681 on 2026-09-03 (close 1.15996)
Leveraged funds extended their Euro FX net short by 4,622 contracts in the week to 11 August 2026, pushing it to the 2.6th percentile of its three-year range, leaving the crowded short unchallenged and exposed.
What would prove it wrong
The Euro FX net short shrinks in the next CFTC Commitments of Traders report while EUR/USD holds at or above 1.1681.
Read analysis#How it settled
no EURUSD=X close below 1.1369 through 2026-09-05
Leveraged funds' Euro FX short reached its most crowded level in three years in the week to 11 August 2026 even as EUR/USD sits at a 20-day high and the Dollar Index at a 20-day low, leaving the short, not the currency, as the exposed position in this trade.
What would prove it wrong
If the Euro FX net short continues to deepen in the next CFTC Commitments of Traders report while EUR/USD holds its ground, the positioning crowding persists unchallenged; if instead the net short begins to shrink, the crowding has already started to unwind and the exposed-position framing no longer holds.
Read analysis#How it settled
The 18 August reading, that the euro short was the exposed position, is sustained: the Euro FX net short deepened by 4,622 contracts in the week to 11 August while EUR/USD held a 20-day high of 1.1681 on 21 August, matching rather than falsifying the original crowding read.
Leveraged funds' covering of the 2-year Treasury short in the week to 28 July 2026 reflects de-risking ahead of the 7 August payroll print, not a directional bet on Fed cuts, while the 10-year short's continued build and the futures-priced 42.3bp firmer 12-month path both argue the higher-yield thesis is still intact at the long end.
What would prove it wrong
If the Non-Farm Employment Change prints at or below 57,000 on 7 August 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield would fall back through 4.0%, confirming the front-end covering anticipated a softer labor read; if it prints at or above 85,000 with the 2-year yield holding above 4.0%, the covering was premature and the firmer path stands unchallenged.
Read analysis#How it settled
no DGS2 close below 4 through 2026-08-08
Sterling's 30 July 2026 rally to 1.3442 is a broad dollar retreat (Dollar Index down to a 20-day low of 100.1) borrowing the pound's exchange rate as its vehicle, not a market pricing a more hawkish Bank of England despite Governor Bailey's own pushback on hike bets.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If GBP/USD continues rising even as the US Dollar Index stabilizes or recovers off its 20-day low of 100.1, that would indicate the market is pricing UK-specific strength rather than a dollar-side move, undermining this reading.
The Treasury curve is pricing two separate stories at once: the front end (2Y, 5Y, SOFR) is covering shorts on softening Canadian and US data, while the 10-year short extends to its most stretched since January on a fiscal-supply narrative the long end has not let go of.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If the next COT report shows the 10-year note's short beginning to cover alongside the front end rather than extending further, the curve-split reading fails and a single delayed repricing becomes the more likely explanation.
The dollar's failure to rally despite fading Fed cut odds and a 37bp firmer 12-month priced path reflects a still-stretched euro and yen short base absorbing the hawkish repricing through covering flow, not a dollar structurally capped.
What would prove it wrong
If the Dollar Index breaks decisively below its 20-day low of 100.5 even as Fed cut odds continue to fade and yields hold firm, the hawkish-hold repricing thesis fails.
Read analysis#How it settled
DX-Y.NYB traded below 100.5 on 2026-07-30 (session low 99.86)