Thesis ledger
Dated forecasts and market interpretations with assessment criteria and subsequent outcomes. This records research, not portfolio performance.
Publication range: 2 Jul 2026 – 15 Oct 2026. Source: Hawk Thorne research record. Thesis descriptions retain the content recorded in the ledger.
Forecasts
23Claims about future events, assessed against a stated condition and time horizon.
- Held
- 8
- Broke
- 8
- Unresolved
- 0
- Awaiting assessment
- 7
Interpretations
117Assessments of current conditions. New evidence can sustain, revise or retire an interpretation. These do not contribute to forecast accuracy.
- Sustained
- 7
- Revised
- 19
- Retired
- 10
- Awaiting assessment
- 52
- Historical assessments
- 29
Assessment rules and forecast calibration
Since 27 July 2026, forecasts and interpretations follow separate assessment rules. Earlier interpretations graded against price thresholds remain in the history and are excluded from calibration.
Declared probabilities compared with assessed outcomes. Brier is the mean squared error; a lower score indicates less error within this sample. A small sample does not establish future forecasting accuracy.
Forecast calibration
scored forecasts: 17 · Brier: 0.252
The sample includes only resolved forecasts with a recorded probability. Interpretations and unresolved entries are excluded.
Leveraged funds have rebuilt the 2-year Treasury short to 98.1th-percentile stretch while the priced Fed path firms at 67 basis points over 12 months and the UST 2Y NOTE yield sits at 4.79%.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.60% before the next Commitments of Traders report.
Fed funds futures price a firmer, no-cuts path (81.3bp higher over 12 months) that is running ahead of both the falling 2-year Treasury yield and the softer September payrolls data, leaving the stretched leveraged-fund 2-year short more exposed to a reversal than the priced path implies.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The US 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.60% on 8 October 2026 or earlier, showing the cash curve and the leveraged short are outrunning the priced tightening path rather than confirming it.
The Nasdaq Mini futures net short reversed its two-week covering trend and rebuilt by 23,556 contracts of gross short in the week to 22 September even as the Nasdaq Composite continued climbing, alongside comparable short-building in the E-mini S&P 500 and an already record-stretched Russell E-mini short, leaving index futures positioned against a rally that has not yet broken.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The Nasdaq Composite closes above 27,862 within 10 trading days without a resumption of Nasdaq Mini futures short covering, or the net short extends further while the Composite remains below 27,862.
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer 12-month policy path (80bp higher, not cuts) well above the FOMC's own 2.8% committee mean, even as August job openings fell to 7.079 million and consumer confidence hit a 12-year low, leaving the front end of the Treasury curve exposed if the labor deterioration continues into the 2 October payrolls report.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If the 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.50% within the next 15 trading days, the priced tightening path this note describes will have reversed rather than persisted.
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer, higher policy path (71.5bp higher over 12 months, not cuts) running ahead of the FOMC's own 2.9% mean projection, driving a historically fast repricing at the front end of the Treasury curve even as the broader regime read stays balanced.
What would prove it wrong
If the 2-year Treasury yield retreats to 4.50% or lower by 27 September 2026, the fast repricing this note is built on will have proven supply-driven and reversible rather than a sustained repricing of rate expectations.
Read analysis#How it settled
DGS2 closed above 4.5 on 2026-09-24 (close 4.87)
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by a further 16,524 contracts in the week to 15 September 2026 to 1,321,644 contracts, growing into a yield at the 100th percentile of its trailing year and a Fed funds futures path pricing 70bp of additional tightening, a position the desk's 18 September falsifier has not yet broken but which the 22 September auction will test directly.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The 2-year Treasury yield trades at or below 4.60% in the sessions following the 22 September 2026 auction, showing the leveraged short has outgrown the policy path it is betting against.
The Nasdaq Mini futures net short covered for a second straight report (25,064 contracts in the week to 15 September) as the Nasdaq Composite rallied to a fresh 20-day high, exhibiting the ordinary short-squeeze mechanism while the position remains near its three-year stretch extreme.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If the Nasdaq Mini net short remains at or above the 85th percentile of its three-year range in the next COT report while the Nasdaq Composite closes above 28,200, the forced-seller squeeze thesis fires; if the short keeps covering toward below the 80th percentile, the read holds.
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by 33,281 contracts in the week to 8 September 2026 even as the 2-year yield sits at the 100th percentile of its trailing year, a position now at the 97.4th percentile of its own three-year range that a soft 22 September US Note 2-Year auction or a stall in the priced Fed tightening path could unwind sharply.
What would prove it wrong
The 2-year Treasury yield trades at or below 4.60% in the days following the 22 September 2026 auction, showing the crowded leveraged-fund short is over-extended against a policy path not firming as fast as fed funds futures currently price.
Read analysis#How it settled
no DGS2 close below 4.6 through 2026-09-30
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer policy path (52bp higher over 12 months) even as leveraged funds keep covering a once-record Euro FX short, and the two signals cannot both be right about where dollar strength is headed.
What would prove it wrong
The Euro FX net short deepens in the next Commitments of Traders report while EUR/USD trades at or below 1.1535, reversing the covering wave and showing the priced tightening path is dominating the currency.
Read analysis#How it settled
EURUSD=X closed below 1.1535 on 2026-09-17 (close 1.14699)
The options market is pricing calm into a rates market pricing a firmer path and a Treasury yield at the 99.2nd percentile of its year, a positioning gap the 8 September note's credit-stress finding does not explain.
What would prove it wrong
If the VIX closes above 20 in the five sessions following the 11 September Core CPI y/y print, the options market has repriced its assessment of the rate-path risk it is currently underpricing.
Read analysis#How it settled
VIXCLS closed below 20 on 2026-09-10 (close 17.84)
The 10-year Treasury yield's 99.2nd-percentile level already prices most of the current Treasury supply wave, even as the regime's stated credit-stress driver shows no corresponding extreme in high-yield spreads.
What would prove it wrong
If the 9 or 10 September Treasury auction (reopening) results require the 10-year yield to close above 4.95% to draw participation, and the yield holds above that level through the close of 17 September, the thesis that the supply story is already priced fails.
Read analysis#How it settled
DGS10 closed above 4.95 on 2026-09-10 (close 4.95)
Fed funds futures price a firmer twelve-month rate path, 37.5 basis points higher, on an August payrolls beat of 162,000 against a 55,000 forecast, while the VIX sits at 15.2 (33rd percentile) with large positive S&P 500 dealer gamma showing the options market pricing calm.
What would prove it wrong
If the VIX closes above 20 in the five sessions following the 4 September 2026 payrolls release, the options market has repriced its assessment of the labour-driven rate path.
Read analysis#How it settled
no VIXCLS close above 20 through 2026-09-12