Thesis ledger
Dated forecasts and market interpretations with assessment criteria and subsequent outcomes. This records research, not portfolio performance.
Publication range: 2 Jul 2026 – 15 Oct 2026. Source: Hawk Thorne research record. Thesis descriptions retain the content recorded in the ledger.
Forecasts
23Claims about future events, assessed against a stated condition and time horizon.
- Held
- 8
- Broke
- 8
- Unresolved
- 0
- Awaiting assessment
- 7
Interpretations
117Assessments of current conditions. New evidence can sustain, revise or retire an interpretation. These do not contribute to forecast accuracy.
- Sustained
- 7
- Revised
- 19
- Retired
- 10
- Awaiting assessment
- 52
- Historical assessments
- 29
Assessment rules and forecast calibration
Since 27 July 2026, forecasts and interpretations follow separate assessment rules. Earlier interpretations graded against price thresholds remain in the history and are excluded from calibration.
Declared probabilities compared with assessed outcomes. Brier is the mean squared error; a lower score indicates less error within this sample. A small sample does not establish future forecasting accuracy.
Forecast calibration
scored forecasts: 17 · Brier: 0.252
The sample includes only resolved forecasts with a recorded probability. Interpretations and unresolved entries are excluded.
WIG-BANKI's 3.64% one-day drop and 4.36% five-session decline, nearly double the broader WIG20's fall, suggests the bank sector is specifically re-examining the rate-cut assumption embedded in its valuations ahead of the 7 October 2026 RPP decision, while the złoty's largely flat EUR/PLN tape (up 0.27% on the session, down 0.06% over five sessions) is not corroborating a Polish-specific repricing.
What would prove it wrong
This reading is retired if the 7 October 2026 NBP decision or its communication reaffirms the mid-2027 return-to-target framing from the March 2026 projection despite the September CPI print, in which case the bank-sector selloff reflects noise rather than a genuine repricing of the easing path; it is sustained if the Council's communication instead signals a slowing or pausing of the cutting cycle.
Read analysis#How it settled
The referee is correct: the falsifier explicitly hinges on the 7 October NBP decision/communication, which had not yet occurred as of this data pack (scheduled 07 Oct 10:00 UTC, still upcoming); grading 'sustained' prematurely treats an untested condition as confirmed, so the reading should be revised to await that event rather than resolved now.
The September flash CPI print at 4.0% narrows the Council's room to treat the post-fuel-cap inflation overshoot as transitory, even as WIG-BANKI valuations and a flat złoty still price a continuing NBP easing cycle.
What would prove it wrong
This reading is retired if the 7 October 2026 NBP rate decision or its communication signals a shift away from the mid-2027 return-to-target framing established in the March projection; it is sustained if the Council reaffirms that longer-term path despite the 4.0% print.
Read analysis#How it settled
The referee is correct: the falsifier condition explicitly hinges on the 7 October NBP decision, which has not yet occurred, so there is no basis to claim the reading is 'sustained'; grading it as surviving before the triggering event happens is a flawed application of evidence, and the EUR/PLN vs USD/PLN dynamics cited belong to a separate 23 September reading's falsifier, not this one.
The Nasdaq Mini futures net short reversed its two-week covering trend and rebuilt by 23,556 contracts of gross short in the week to 22 September even as the Nasdaq Composite continued climbing, alongside comparable short-building in the E-mini S&P 500 and an already record-stretched Russell E-mini short, leaving index futures positioned against a rally that has not yet broken.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The Nasdaq Composite closes above 27,862 within 10 trading days without a resumption of Nasdaq Mini futures short covering, or the net short extends further while the Composite remains below 27,862.
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer 12-month policy path (80bp higher, not cuts) well above the FOMC's own 2.8% committee mean, even as August job openings fell to 7.079 million and consumer confidence hit a 12-year low, leaving the front end of the Treasury curve exposed if the labor deterioration continues into the 2 October payrolls report.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If the 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.50% within the next 15 trading days, the priced tightening path this note describes will have reversed rather than persisted.
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer, higher policy path (71.5bp higher over 12 months, not cuts) running ahead of the FOMC's own 2.9% mean projection, driving a historically fast repricing at the front end of the Treasury curve even as the broader regime read stays balanced.
What would prove it wrong
If the 2-year Treasury yield retreats to 4.50% or lower by 27 September 2026, the fast repricing this note is built on will have proven supply-driven and reversible rather than a sustained repricing of rate expectations.
Read analysis#How it settled
DGS2 closed above 4.5 on 2026-09-24 (close 4.87)
EUR/PLN's rise to a 20-day high is mostly a dollar-strength effect, not evidence corroborating the bond market's rate-cut skepticism; the 10-year POLGB spread over 6-month WIBOR remains the primary signal on NBP's easing room.
What would prove it wrong
This reading is sustained if EUR/PLN continues tracking USD/PLN and EUR/USD moves rather than diverging from them; it is retired if EUR/PLN weakens against the euro even as EUR/USD stabilises or reverses, indicating a genuinely złoty-specific repricing has taken hold.
Read analysis#How it settled
EUR/USD fell further rather than stabilising or reversing (a fresh 20-day low at 1.1334 on 29 September), so the 23 September retirement condition, which required EUR/USD to stabilise or reverse while EUR/PLN still weakened, was not met; EUR/PLN's 0.07% session move and 0.74% five-session move against USD/PLN's much larger 1.91% five-session move keep the original dollar-driver reading intact.
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by a further 16,524 contracts in the week to 15 September 2026 to 1,321,644 contracts, growing into a yield at the 100th percentile of its trailing year and a Fed funds futures path pricing 70bp of additional tightening, a position the desk's 18 September falsifier has not yet broken but which the 22 September auction will test directly.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The 2-year Treasury yield trades at or below 4.60% in the sessions following the 22 September 2026 auction, showing the leveraged short has outgrown the policy path it is betting against.
The Nasdaq Mini futures net short covered for a second straight report (25,064 contracts in the week to 15 September) as the Nasdaq Composite rallied to a fresh 20-day high, exhibiting the ordinary short-squeeze mechanism while the position remains near its three-year stretch extreme.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If the Nasdaq Mini net short remains at or above the 85th percentile of its three-year range in the next COT report while the Nasdaq Composite closes above 28,200, the forced-seller squeeze thesis fires; if the short keeps covering toward below the 80th percentile, the read holds.
WTI's managed-money net long, built to the top of its three-year range in the week to 15 September 2026, is a fresh exposure absorbing a diplomacy-driven price drop the report itself predates, not evidence yet for or against the desk's 17 September asymmetry call.
What would prove it wrong
The reading is tested when the Commitments of Traders report covering the week after 15 September 2026 publishes: if it shows WTI's managed-money net long extending further into the price decline, the exposure reading is sustained; if it shows the long being trimmed, the reading should be revised toward positioning already adjusting to price.
Read analysis#How it settled
The 22 September report shows WTI's net long rising to 5,879 contracts, but gross longs fell 2,031 contracts while gross shorts fell 5,163, a mixed de-risking the 21 September note's binary extend/trim test did not anticipate.
The record 2.66pp spread between the 10-year POLGB yield and 6-month WIBOR on 20 September signals the bond market sees less room for further NBP cuts than WIG-BANKI's flat-but-still-elevated pricing assumes.
What would prove it wrong
This reading is sustained if the NBP's next projection round keeps or extends the mid-2027 return-to-target timeline from the March round; it is retired if that round instead pulls the CPI path back toward target sooner, restoring room for the cuts WIG-BANKI is pricing.
Read analysis#How it settled
The referee is correct: the stated falsifier requires the NBP's next projection round to confirm or extend the mid-2027 timeline, but the data pack still only contains the March 2026 round, so no new projection has occurred to test this; the reading cannot be graded 'sustained' on unchanged WIG-BANKI pricing and an unretested spread alone, since that is not the confirming event specified.
WIG20's record close on 17 September is concentrated in banks and Allegro; Orlen, one of its largest weights, fell roughly 6% from its recent peak the same session as large futures blocks traded into the 18 September expiry.
What would prove it wrong
Orlen recovers toward its recent peak in the sessions immediately following the 18 September 2026 WIG20 futures expiry, indicating the divergence was positioning-driven rather than a repricing of the refiner's fundamentals.
Read analysis#How it settled
No evidence on Orlen's price behavior after the 18 September expiry (recovery toward peak or continued decline) is presented, so the falsifier cannot be evaluated and the reading cannot be sustained as stated.
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by 33,281 contracts in the week to 8 September 2026 even as the 2-year yield sits at the 100th percentile of its trailing year, a position now at the 97.4th percentile of its own three-year range that a soft 22 September US Note 2-Year auction or a stall in the priced Fed tightening path could unwind sharply.
What would prove it wrong
The 2-year Treasury yield trades at or below 4.60% in the days following the 22 September 2026 auction, showing the crowded leveraged-fund short is over-extended against a policy path not firming as fast as fed funds futures currently price.
Read analysis#How it settled
no DGS2 close below 4.6 through 2026-09-30