Back to Front Page21 AugustFX & RatesA record-crowded euro short keeps growing as the Fed's path firms, not eases
Hawk Thorne Research18 AugustFX & RatesLeveraged funds' euro short hits a three-year extreme as the dollar keeps sliding
Hawk Thorne Research7 AugustCommoditiesA payrolls miss is driving gold higher, but the spec long is shrinking
Hawk Thorne Research6 AugustFX & RatesLeveraged funds trim their 2-year Treasury short as the Fed path firms
Hawk Thorne Research30 JulyFX & RatesA dollar slide, not BoE hawkishness, is doing the work in sterling's rally
Hawk Thorne Research30 JulyMacro & PolicyAuction supply, not the Fed, is what's keeping the 2-year yield this stretched
Hawk Thorne Research28 JulyMacro & PolicyIran's war premium drains out of crude while the 2-year yield stays put
Hawk Thorne Research24 JulyMacro & PolicyA 25.72% crude rally on Iran risk finds no echo in Treasury yields
Hawk Thorne Research23 JulyMacro & PolicyA $125.9bn issuance wave hits the tape before the 10-year auction even clears
Hawk Thorne Research20 JulyFX & RatesOne Treasury book, two convictions: shorts cover up front, deepen at the long end
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyFX & RatesFading Fed cut bets can't lift the dollar past a still-crowded euro short
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyMacro & PolicyDisinflation loses the vote to fiscal supply and a fresh WTI high
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyMacro & PolicySoft PPI and a China growth miss outvote a US strike on Iran
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA cooler CPI print outlasts a live Hormuz blockade, but bonds aren't cheering
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyFX & RatesDollar shorts unwind even as short-end yields hit a 17-month high
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyEquitiesIBM's 17% drop tests whether earnings misses are broadening past one stock
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA 3.8% CPI forecast collides with a bond market already betting against it
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyMacro & PolicyOil's Iran shock meets a labor slump ahead of the CPI print
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyFX & RatesYen shorts are covering into a BOJ independence scare, not a rate call
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyMacro & PolicyCrude's five-day bounce puts a hole in the CPI disinflation story
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyFX & RatesCanadian dollar shorts hit a record crowd just as jobs data beats
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyMacro & PolicyJapan's PPI hits a 2026 high, but the tape isn't pricing it yet
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyMacro & PolicyA $134.2 billion Treasury drawdown is doing what soft housing data cannot
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyFX & RatesCrowded dollar shorts leave EUR/USD and USD/JPY primed to snap back
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's rebound puts the Fed's hawkish minutes read back in question
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyFX & RatesHawkish Fed minutes can't lift the Dollar Index off 100.90
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyFX & RatesA hawkish cluster is building, but the Dollar Index hasn't noticed
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyFX & RatesRBNZ delivers the hike it flagged, but the Aussie long is the one fraying
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's slide tests the rate-cut story the desk has doubted since 3 July
Hawk Thorne Research7 JulyFX & RatesJapan's strongest wage cycle since 1992 hasn't dented the crowded yen short
Hawk Thorne Research6 JulyMacro & PolicyA soft-patch in growth data is building while the market keeps pricing only liquidity
Hawk Thorne Research6 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's rally is no longer alone, but the bond market still won't sign off on it
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyGold is pricing Fed cuts that the bond market has not yet agreed to
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyFX & RatesThe euro short just grew again, and that is the answer to the desk's own test
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyThe supply tsunami is here, but the bond market isn't punishing it, and that's the real signal
Hawk Thorne Research4 JulyFX & RatesTokyo escalates from warning to targeting speculators, and the yen short still hasn't blinked
Hawk Thorne Research4 JulyMacro & PolicyThe Fed cannot cut on a jobless rate that fell because workers gave up looking
Hawk Thorne Research3 JulyMacro & PolicyThe regime downgrade the desk was waiting for just landed, and it argues for less conviction, not more
Hawk Thorne Research3 JulyFX & RatesThe crowded euro short just met its falsifier, and the Treasury short-covering trade agrees with the squeeze
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyFX & RatesThe payroll miss the desk's falsifier demanded just landed, and the crowded euro short is now the trade to watch unwind
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyA 57,000 payroll miss just handed the supply-tsunami thesis its first real test, and it's failing on cue
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyFX & RatesTokyo's intervention warning finds the yen short crowded and unhedged into payrolls
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyThe liquidity story just flipped, and risk assets haven't noticed yet
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyFX & RatesThe euro short is now the most crowded trade on the board, and Friday's jobs data is the only thing that can unwind it
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyFX & RatesEuro shorts build even as the front end of the Treasury curve stops betting on higher yields
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyMacro & PolicyLiquidity is papering over a manufacturing slowdown that spans two continents
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